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http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/29333
Title: | A novel Multiple-Expert Protocol to manage uncertainty and subjective choices in probabilistic single and multi-hazard risk analyses |
Authors: | Selva, J Argyroudis, S Cotton, F Esposito, S Iqbal, SM Lorito, S Stojadinovic, B Basili, R Hoechner, A Mignan, A Pitilakis, K Thio, HK Giardini, D |
Keywords: | Expert elicitation;Epistemic uncertainty;Stress test;Critical infrastructure;Multi-hazard risk;Natural hazards |
Issue Date: | 26-Jun-2024 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Citation: | Selva, J. et al. (2024) ‘A novel multiple-expert protocol to manage uncertainty and subjective choices in probabilistic single and multi-hazard risk analyses’, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 110, 104641, pp. 1 - 21. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104641. |
Abstract: | Integrating diverse expert opinions in hazard and risk projects is essential to managing subjective decisions and quantifying uncertainty to produce stable and trustworthy results. A structured procedure is necessary to organize the gathering of experts' opinions while ensuring transparency, accountability, and independence in judgements. We propose a novel Multiple-Expert management Protocol (MEP) to address this challenge, providing procedural guidelines for conducting single to multi-hazard risk analyses. MEP establishes a workflow to manage subjectivity rooted in (i) moderated and staged group interactions, (ii) trackable blind advice through written elicitations with mathematical aggregation, (iii) participatory independent review, (iv) close cooperation between scientific and managerial coordination, and (v) proper and comprehensive documentation. Originally developed for stress testing critical infrastructure, MEP is designed as a single, flexible, technology-neutral procedural workflow applicable to various sectors. Moreover, its scalability allows it to adapt from high to low-budget projects and from complex probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessments to standard single-hazard analyses, with different experts' degree and type of involvement depending on available funding and emerging controversies. We present two compelling case studies to showcase MEP's practical applicability: a multi-hazard risk analysis for a port infrastructure and a single-hazard regional tsunami hazard assessment. |
Description: | Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article. |
URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/29333 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104641 |
Other Identifiers: | ORCiD: Jacopo Selva https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6263-6934 ORCiD: Sotirios Argyroudis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8131-3038 ORCiD: Fabrice Cotton https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9242-3996 ORCiD: Stefano Lorito https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1458-2131 ORCiD: Božidar Stojadinović https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1713-1977 ORCiD: Roberto Basili https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5140-0694 ORCiD: Andreas Hoechner https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3494-5200 ORCiD: Arnaud Mignan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2167-7534 ORCiD: Kyriazis Pitilakis https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2265-0314 ORCiD: Hong Kie Thio https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9051-9601 104641 |
Appears in Collections: | Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research Papers |
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FullText.pdf | Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | 5.1 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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