Modeling the Lifelong Impact of Changes in Physical Activity Behavior on Non-Communicable Disease Events as a Result of The UK Covid-19 Lockdown

Abstract

The risk of developing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is inextricably linked to the level of physical activity undertaken by individuals. The Covid-19 lockdown caused a shift in physical activity behaviors among the UK population. This study used an agent-based simulation to predict the impact of the reduction in physical activity caused by the UK lockdown, quantified using data from smartphone tracked activity, on the number of annual NCD occurrences over the lifetime of a cohort. The model considers an individual's characteristics and health status to predict the risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease (CVD), depression and musculoskeletal injuries (MSI). When physical activity was reduced as a result of the lockdown, the model showed an increase in the number of T2D, CVD and depression events and a decrease in the number of MSI events, over the short-term, but the number of incidences recovered over the lifetime of the cohort.