http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/9135 2026-05-04T19:32:21Z 2026-05-04T19:32:21Z Wen, B Wu, Y Guo, Y Gasparrini, A Tong, S Overcenco, A Urban, A Schneider, A Entezari, A Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, A Zanobetti, A Analitis, A Zeka, A Tobias, A Nunes, B Alahmad, B Armstrong, B Forsberg, B Pan, S-C Íñiguez, C Ameling, C De la Cruz Valencia, C Åström, C Houthuijs, D Van Dung, D Royé, D Indermitte, E Lavigne, E Mayvaneh, F Acquaotta, F de’Donato, F Rao, S Sera, F Carrasco-Escobar, G Kan, H Orru, H Kim, H Holobaca, I-H Kyselý, J Madureira, J Schwartz, J Jaakkola, JJK Katsouyanni, K Hurtado Diaz, M Ragettli, MS Hashizume, M Pascal, M de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, M Valdés Ortega, N Ryti, N Scovronick, N Michelozzi, P Matus Correa, P Goodman, P Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, P Raz, R Abrutzky, R Osorio, S Ngoc Dang, T Colistro, V Huber, V Lee, W Seposo, X Honda, Y Kim, Y Leon Guo, Y Bell, ML Li, S http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28936 2024-05-13T08:28:34Z 2024-05-03T00:00:00Z

Title: Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study Authors: Wen, B; Wu, Y; Guo, Y; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Overcenco, A; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Entezari, A; Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, A; Zanobetti, A; Analitis, A; Zeka, A; Tobias, A; Nunes, B; Alahmad, B; Armstrong, B; Forsberg, B; Pan, S-C; Íñiguez, C; Ameling, C; De la Cruz Valencia, C; Åström, C; Houthuijs, D; Van Dung, D; Royé, D; Indermitte, E; Lavigne, E; Mayvaneh, F; Acquaotta, F; de’Donato, F; Rao, S; Sera, F; Carrasco-Escobar, G; Kan, H; Orru, H; Kim, H; Holobaca, I-H; Kyselý, J; Madureira, J; Schwartz, J; Jaakkola, JJK; Katsouyanni, K; Hurtado Diaz, M; Ragettli, MS; Hashizume, M; Pascal, M; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, M; Valdés Ortega, N; Ryti, N; Scovronick, N; Michelozzi, P; Matus Correa, P; Goodman, P; Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, P; Raz, R; Abrutzky, R; Osorio, S; Ngoc Dang, T; Colistro, V; Huber, V; Lee, W; Seposo, X; Honda, Y; Kim, Y; Leon Guo, Y; Bell, ML; Li, S Abstract: Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has a higher effect. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health. Description: Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data.; Supplementary data are available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024002988?via%3Dihub#s0095 .

2024-05-03T00:00:00Z Gao, Y Huang, W Zhao, Q Ryti, N Armstrong, B Gasparrini, A Tong, S Pascal, M Urban, A Zeka, A Lavigne, E Madureira, J Goodman, P Huber, V Forsberg, B Kyselý, J Sera, F Guo, Y Li, S Gao, Y Huang, W Zhao, Q Ryti, N Armstrong, B Gasparrini, A Tong, S Pascal, M Urban, A Zeka, A Lavigne, E Madureira, J Goodman, P Huber, V Forsberg, B Kyselý, J Sera, F Bell, M Hales, S Honda, Y Jaakkola, JJK Tobias, A Vicedo-Cabrera, AM Abrutzky, R Coelho, MDSZS Saldiva, PHN Correa, PM Ortega, NV Kan, H Osorio, S Roye, D Orru, H Indermitte, E Schneider, A Katsouyanni, K Analitis, A Carlsen, HK Mayvaneh, F Roradeh, H Raz, R Michelozzi, P de'Donato, F Hashizume, M Kim, Y Alahmad, B Cauchy, JP Diaz, MH Arellano, EEF Valencia, CDLC Overcenco, A Houthuijs, D Ameling, C Rao, S Carrasco, G Seposo, X Chua, PLC Silva, SDNPD Nunes, B Holobaca, I-H Cvijanovic, I Mistry, M Scovronick, N Acquaotta, F Kim, H Lee, W Íñiguez, C Åström, C Ragettli, MS Guo, YL Pan, S-C Colistro, V Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J Dang, TN Dung, DV Guo, Y Li, S http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28935 2024-05-07T02:01:18Z 2024-02-06T00:00:00Z

Title: Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study Authors: Gao, Y; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Ryti, N; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Pascal, M; Urban, A; Zeka, A; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Goodman, P; Huber, V; Forsberg, B; Kyselý, J; Sera, F; Guo, Y; Li, S; Gao, Y; Huang, W; Zhao, Q; Ryti, N; Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Tong, S; Pascal, M; Urban, A; Zeka, A; Lavigne, E; Madureira, J; Goodman, P; Huber, V; Forsberg, B; Kyselý, J; Sera, F; Bell, M; Hales, S; Honda, Y; Jaakkola, JJK; Tobias, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Abrutzky, R; Coelho, MDSZS; Saldiva, PHN; Correa, PM; Ortega, NV; Kan, H; Osorio, S; Roye, D; Orru, H; Indermitte, E; Schneider, A; Katsouyanni, K; Analitis, A; Carlsen, HK; Mayvaneh, F; Roradeh, H; Raz, R; Michelozzi, P; de'Donato, F; Hashizume, M; Kim, Y; Alahmad, B; Cauchy, JP; Diaz, MH; Arellano, EEF; Valencia, CDLC; Overcenco, A; Houthuijs, D; Ameling, C; Rao, S; Carrasco, G; Seposo, X; Chua, PLC; Silva, SDNPD; Nunes, B; Holobaca, I-H; Cvijanovic, I; Mistry, M; Scovronick, N; Acquaotta, F; Kim, H; Lee, W; Íñiguez, C; Åström, C; Ragettli, MS; Guo, YL; Pan, S-C; Colistro, V; Zanobetti, A; Schwartz, J; Dang, TN; Dung, DV; Guo, Y; Li, S Abstract: Background: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000–19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. Findings: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692–250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93–4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33–3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016–19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016–19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000–03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. Interpretation: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. Description: Data sharing: All used data were obtained from the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network (https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/) under a data sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available. Researchers can refer to MCC participants, who are listed as coauthors of our study, for information on accessing the data for each country.; Supplementary Material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002772#sec1 .

2024-02-06T00:00:00Z Armstrong, B Tobias, A Mistry, MN Bell, ML Urban, A Kyselý, J Ryti, N Cvijanovic, I Ng, CFS Roye, D Vicedo-Cabrera, AM Tong, S Lavigne, E Íñiguez, C da Silva, SDNP Madureira, J Jaakkola, JJK Sera, F Honda, Y Gasparrini, A Hashizume, M Abrutzky, R Acquaotta, F Alahmad, B Analitis, A Carlsen, HK Carrasco-Escobar, G de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M Colistro, V Matus Correa, P Dang, TN de'Donato, F Hurtado Diaz, M Dung, DV Entezari, A Forsberg, B Goodman, P Guo, YL Guo, Y Holobaca, I-H Houthuijs, D Huber, V Indermitte, E Kan, H Katsouyanni, K Kim, Y Kim, H Lee, W Li, S Mayvaneh, F Michelozzi, P Orru, H Valdés Ortega, N Osorio, S Overcenco, A Pan, S-C Pascal, M Ragettli, MS Rao, S Raz, R Saldiva, PHN Schneider, A Schwartz, J Scovronick, N Seposo, X De la Cruz Valencia, C Zanobetti, A Zeka, A http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28934 2024-05-07T02:01:20Z 2024-02-06T00:00:00Z

Title: Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study Authors: Armstrong, B; Tobias, A; Mistry, MN; Bell, ML; Urban, A; Kyselý, J; Ryti, N; Cvijanovic, I; Ng, CFS; Roye, D; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Tong, S; Lavigne, E; Íñiguez, C; da Silva, SDNP; Madureira, J; Jaakkola, JJK; Sera, F; Honda, Y; Gasparrini, A; Hashizume, M; Abrutzky, R; Acquaotta, F; Alahmad, B; Analitis, A; Carlsen, HK; Carrasco-Escobar, G; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M; Colistro, V; Matus Correa, P; Dang, TN; de'Donato, F; Hurtado Diaz, M; Dung, DV; Entezari, A; Forsberg, B; Goodman, P; Guo, YL; Guo, Y; Holobaca, I-H; Houthuijs, D; Huber, V; Indermitte, E; Kan, H; Katsouyanni, K; Kim, Y; Kim, H; Lee, W; Li, S; Mayvaneh, F; Michelozzi, P; Orru, H; Valdés Ortega, N; Osorio, S; Overcenco, A; Pan, S-C; Pascal, M; Ragettli, MS; Rao, S; Raz, R; Saldiva, PHN; Schneider, A; Schwartz, J; Scovronick, N; Seposo, X; De la Cruz Valencia, C; Zanobetti, A; Zeka, A Abstract: Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. Findings: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. Interpretation: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates. Description: Data sharing: All data used in our study were obtained from the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data-sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available. Researchers can refer to collaborators of the Network, who are listed as coauthors of this Article (primary contact: Antonio Gasparrini, Antonio.Gasparrini@lshtm.ac.uk), for information on accessing the data for each country. The R code is available on request, and a reproducible example is publicly available on the personal GitHub website of the first author (https://github.com/LinaMadaniyazi).; For more on the MCC see https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/; Supplementary Material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002693#sec1 .

2024-02-06T00:00:00Z Chen, K de Schrijver, E Sivaraj, S Sera, F Scovronick, N Jiang, L Roye, D Lavigne, E Kyselý, J Urban, A Schneider, A Huber, V Madureira, J Mistry, MN Cvijanovic, I Armstrong, B Schneider, R Tobias, A Astrom, C Guo, Y Honda, Y Abrutzky, R Tong, S de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M Saldiva, PHN Correa, PM Ortega, NV Kan, H Osorio, S Orru, H Indermitte, E Jaakkola, JJK Ryti, N Pascal, M Katsouyanni, K Analitis, A Mayvaneh, F Entezari, A Goodman, P Zeka, A Michelozzi, P de’Donato, F Hashizume, M Alahmad, B Diaz, MH De la Cruz Valencia, C Overcenco, A Houthuijs, D Ameling, C Rao, S Carrasco-Escobar, G Seposo, X da Silva, SP Holobaca, IH Acquaotta, F Kim, H Lee, W Íñiguez, C Forsberg, B Ragettli, MS Guo, Y-LL Pan, S-C Li, S Colistro, V Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J Dang, TN Van Dung, D Carlsen, HK Cauchi, JP Achilleos, S Raz, R Gasparrini, A Vicedo-Cabrera, AM http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28431 2024-03-02T12:01:14Z 2024-02-27T00:00:00Z

Title: Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels Authors: Chen, K; de Schrijver, E; Sivaraj, S; Sera, F; Scovronick, N; Jiang, L; Roye, D; Lavigne, E; Kyselý, J; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Huber, V; Madureira, J; Mistry, MN; Cvijanovic, I; Armstrong, B; Schneider, R; Tobias, A; Astrom, C; Guo, Y; Honda, Y; Abrutzky, R; Tong, S; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M; Saldiva, PHN; Correa, PM; Ortega, NV; Kan, H; Osorio, S; Orru, H; Indermitte, E; Jaakkola, JJK; Ryti, N; Pascal, M; Katsouyanni, K; Analitis, A; Mayvaneh, F; Entezari, A; Goodman, P; Zeka, A; Michelozzi, P; de’Donato, F; Hashizume, M; Alahmad, B; Diaz, MH; De la Cruz Valencia, C; Overcenco, A; Houthuijs, D; Ameling, C; Rao, S; Carrasco-Escobar, G; Seposo, X; da Silva, SP; Holobaca, IH; Acquaotta, F; Kim, H; Lee, W; Íñiguez, C; Forsberg, B; Ragettli, MS; Guo, Y-LL; Pan, S-C; Li, S; Colistro, V; Zanobetti, A; Schwartz, J; Dang, TN; Van Dung, D; Carlsen, HK; Cauchi, JP; Achilleos, S; Raz, R; Gasparrini, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM Abstract: Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population. Description: Data availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Data were collected within the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available.; Code availability: A sample of the analysis code is available from https://github.com/CHENlab-Yale/MCC_ProjAging_Temp .; Supplementary information is available online at: https://link-springer-com.ezproxytest.brunel.ac.uk/article/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z#Sec15 .

2024-02-27T00:00:00Z