http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/8598 Tue, 07 Apr 2026 05:41:33 GMT 2026-04-07T05:41:33Z http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/33064 Title: When volatility turns, recessions follow Authors: Ricordi, D; Sola, M; Spagnolo, F; Spagnolo, N Abstract: Do shifts into high stock-market volatility foreshadow recessions rather than merely accompany them? Prior work shows volatility rises in downturns and can help short-horizon forecasts, but the timing of discrete volatility regime changes relative to business-cycle turning points is less understood. Using quarterly data for the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, Italy, and France (1960–2019; country-specific start dates), we estimate a bivariate Markov-switching model that jointly classifies high/low output growth and high/low return volatility, and tests restrictions on the transition structure. In the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, and France, entry into the high-volatility state typically precedes recession onset by one to two quarters. For Germany and Italy, the output and volatility state processes are approximately independent. These results suggest that volatility-regime switches are a medium-horizon early-warning signal, consistent with uncertainty and risk-premium repricing that tighten funding conditions in more market-based financial systems. Description: Highlights: • Volatility regime shifts often precede recessions in four of six economies. • A bivariate Markov-switching model jointly tracks growth and volatility regimes. • Likelihood ratio tests compare independence, volatility-leads, and growth-leads. • Germany and Italy show near-independence between output and volatility states. • Volatility switches offer a medium-horizon early-warning signal for downturns.; JEL classification: C32; C52; C58; Data availability: When Volatility Turns, Recessions Follow (Original data: https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/mkkp69py7k/2) (Mendeley Data). Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/33064 2026-03-23T00:00:00Z http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/33062 Title: Impact of robotics on unemployment: Moderating effect of the national culture Authors: Du, G; Lodh, S; Nandy, M; Dabić, M; Kumar, V; Choudrie, J Abstract: The integration of robotics has created significant opportunities while simultaneously introduced labour market challenges. The aim of this exploratory research is to investigate the impact of robotic adoption on unemployment in a cross-country context. By presenting a novel theoretical framework that integrates the Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT) and the Absorptive Capacity Theory (ACT), and analysing a panel data from 33 countries, we show that countries with stronger absorptive capacity are better positioned to convert robotics adoption into employment gains. We further test whether national culture, proxied by Hofstede's cultural dimensions, moderates this relationship, uncovering a substantial heterogeneity across six cultural factors. This provides a practical blueprint for policymakers with clear evidence that uniform approaches to robotics adoption are unlikely to be effective and robotics policies must be tailored to local cultural norms, institutional capabilities, and national readiness. The policymaker should prioritise capability building alongside adjustment measures that support inclusive labour-market transitions. Description: Data availability: The authors do not have permission to share data. Wed, 25 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/33062 2026-03-25T00:00:00Z http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/32891 Title: Evaluating Proposals for Taxation of Space Activities from the Perspective of Space as a Global Commons Authors: Conway, G; Jelfs, P Abstract: The term ‘commons’ has become widely used in recent years to convey shared or cooperative ownership or governance of natural resources, including more open access and global natural resources such as outer space. Governance of commons has a financial dimension to it, including the financing of governance institutions and processes, while also possibly entailing a system of taxation, e.g. applied to the income derived from the exploitation of natural resources. This paper first places taxation in the context of space as commons, i.e. in the context of the range and types of regulation of activities in space that currently exist, especially at international level. It assesses the issue of regulation of space in light of Ostrom’s institutional grammar and subsequent literature on regulating commons. In light of this discussion, it then surveys and evaluates several existing proposals for global taxes relating to space or proposals that are closely analogous to taxation of space activities, in particular: Brock & McMaster on global aviation taxes (2018), Savir’s proposal regarding space-related royalties (2021), and Caljuri on the OECD Model Convention relating to double taxation (2023). The paper concludes by considering the implications for taxation of understanding space within the framework of governance of a commons. Description: 13 slides. Abstract available at: https://2025.iasc-commons.org/abstract_author/author-397/ . Mon, 16 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/32891 2025-06-16T00:00:00Z http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/32889 Title: ‘Configuring an International Tax Framework for Emerging Commercial Exploitation of Space’ Authors: Conway, G; Jelfs, P Description: 13 slides. Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/32889 2025-04-07T00:00:00Z