BURA Collection:

Geopolitical shocks and household financial distress in Europe: The Russia–Ukraine war

Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Title: Geopolitical shocks and household financial distress in Europe: The Russia–Ukraine war Authors: Evgenidis, Anastasios; Fasianos, Apostolos; Yao, Fang Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a major geopolitical risk shock, comparable in scale to the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, on household financial distress in five European countries. We combine a VAR, household survey data, and theoretical insights to develop macro–micro simulations that quantify how such shocks influence household balance sheets. The VAR traces the macroeconomic effects of a surge in geopolitical risk, which we apply to household-level data using the HFCS. We find the shock is associated with elevated inflation, tighter monetary policy, higher mortgage rates, and falling house prices. Our simulations show these dynamics significantly increase financial distress, with variation across countries. We incorporate endogenous consumption responses and show that adjustments driven by interest rate exposure, inflation, and housing wealth play a key role in shaping household resilience. We also document that younger and lower-income households tend to increase consumption following the shock, exacerbating their financial vulnerability. Description: JEL classification: C32; G51; E21; Supplementary data are available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596726000831?via%3Dihub#appSB .

Trump Tariffs and Persistence in Crude Oil Prices:A Long-Memory Approach

Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Title: Trump Tariffs and Persistence in Crude Oil Prices:A Long-Memory Approach Authors: Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko; Ojo, Oluwadare O Abstract: This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 (“Liberation Day”). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June 2024 to 14 January 2026 for the former two and from 8 October 2024 to 15 January 2026 for the latter. The inclusion of WTI, Brent, and Murban provides a comparative perspective across major regional crude oil benchmarks, making it possible to assess whether the observed persistence is global or benchmark-specific. Their long-memory and persistence properties are investigated initially over the full sample, and then the effects of the Trump tariff announcement are assessed by means of subsample analysis for the pre- and postannouncement period as well as recursive estimation of the fractional differencing parameter d measuring persistence. The results indicate that the unit root null cannot be rejected in any case, whether one considers the full sample or the subsamples, which implies that shocks have permanent effects. Further, the recursive estimation shows a transient loss of precision or instability around the announcement, with no detectable change in persistence as implied by the wide confidence bands. Description: Data Availability Statement: The data are publicly available from the website Investing.com .; JEL Codes: C22, F10, F13.; A preprint version of the article is available online: Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, Ojo, Oluwadare O., 2026, "Trump Tariffs and Persistence in Crude Oil Prices: A Long-Memory Approach", CESifo Working Papers No. 12562, CESifo, Munich, https://doi.org/10.65864/9bche3qd2i

Noninterest income, macroprudential policy and bank performance

Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Title: Noninterest income, macroprudential policy and bank performance Authors: Karim, Dilruba; Davis, E Philip; Noel, Dennison Abstract: Macroprudential policies have become crucial tools for maintaining financial stability, but their effect on banks’ noninterest income has not yet been examined. This is a paradox in light of results in the literature linking noninterest income to bank performance indicators such as risk and profitability. Using a global sample of 7395 banks over 1990–2022, we find macroprudential policies have a significant positive effect on noninterest income. Similar results are found for disaggregated samples by type of noninterest income, country development, bank size and pre and post the Global Financial Crisis, and in three robustness checks. However, stimulus from macroprudential policies to noninterest income, and especially its non-fee component, is found to adversely affect bank risk. Furthermore, while significant effects of noninterest income on profitability are generally positive, this is not the case for non-fee income. Our findings have important implications for central bankers, regulators and commercial bank management. Description: JEL Classification: E44; E58; G21; G28

Time Averaged CCE

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Title: Time Averaged CCE Authors: Kaddoura, Yousef; Karavias, Yiannis; Westerlund, Joakim Abstract: A popular approach to interactive effects panel data models is the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator of Pesaran (Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica 74, 967–1012, 2006). The current paper proposes a modified version of this estimator that is useful in a number of cases where the original is not expected to work, such as when the number of cross-sectional units is small. The idea is to use time instead of cross-sectional averages of the observables to purge the interactive effects. Description: Supporting Information is available online at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/obes.70122#support-information-section .