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|Title:||Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption|
|Keywords:||Consumption; Confidence; Causality testing|
|Citation:||Economics and Finance Discussion Papers, Brunel University, 07-12.|
|Abstract:||Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, that could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.|
|Appears in Collections:||Economics and Finance|
Dept of Economics and Finance Research Papers
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