Multi-indicator evaluation for extreme precipitation events in the past 60 years over the Loess Plateau

Abstract

© 2020 by the authors. The unique characteristics of topography, landforms, and climate in the Loess Plateau make it especially important to investigate its extreme precipitation characteristics. Daily precipitation data of Loess Plateau covering a period of 1959-2017 are applied to evaluate the probability features of five precipitation indicators: the amount of extreme heavy precipitation (P95), the days with extreme heavy precipitation, the intensity of extreme heavy precipitation (I95), the continuous dry days, and the annual total precipitation. In addition, the joint risk of different combinations of precipitation indices is quantitatively evaluated based on the copula method. Moreover, the risk and severity of each extreme heavy precipitation factor corresponding to 50-year joint return period are achieved through inverse derivation process. Results show that the precipitation amount and intensity of the Loess Plateau vary greatly in spatial distribution. The annual precipitation in the northwest region may be too concentrated in several rainstorms, which makes the region in a serious drought state for most of the year. At the level of 10-year return period, more than five months with no precipitation events would occur in the Northwest Loess Plateau. While, P95 or I95 events of 100-year level may be encountered in a 50-year return period and in the southeastern region, which means there are foreseeable long-term extreme heavy precipitation events.