A risk register for energy security: a UK case study

Abstract

Energy policy in many countries, driven by concerns about resource scarcity and environmental damage, is promoting a shift from fossil fuels to a variety of renewable sources. This has consequences both for sustainability and energy security, concepts which share common features, some of which are poorly defined or lacking good data. Using the Process Analysis Method for systematically selecting (sustainability) indicators, we recognised the need to account for risks arising from resource discovery and processing, conversion, and the use of the final energy vector. We analyse the whole of the fuel supply chain in a six stage process for 25 renewable and non-renewable fuels, both current and potential sources. We find that causes of risks can be categorised into seven groups, namely: economic, environmental, innovation, manufacturing, political, skills, and technical. Furthermore, we identify 34 specific causes of risk which we assess to compare their relative importance for the different fuels. In both structuring the problem, and quantifying individual risks we use published information and consultation with experts to ensure that the analysis has a broad range of inputs. All of these impinge on a national or supra-national assessment of energy security, which are important for the formulation of energy policy. Using the UK as a case study, we have applied our method to both reference and low carbon future energy system scenarios to calculate the levels of risk as the system composition changes. Our method underlines the need for assessments and data relating to many issues which are commonly not considered as part of energy security.