Beyond winners and losers: trust and the occurrence of elections in a quasi-experimental setting

Abstract

This study investigates the attitudinal consequences of election occurrence, focusing on political trust and efficacy. While prior research has examined how electoral outcomes shape citizens’ views, less is known about whether elections themselves influence political attitudes. Leveraging the quasi-experimental variation created when some prefectures deviated from Japan's unified electoral cycle in 2023, we compare survey responses collected before and after the elections across prefectures that shared a nationwide electoral environment but differed in whether residents had the opportunity to participate. The findings show that elections do not significantly affect political efficacy but do enhance political trust when high-salience gubernatorial contests coincide with local council elections. Subgroup analyses reveal that these trust-enhancing effects are concentrated among lower-educated and lower-income citizens, suggesting that elections may narrow participatory inequalities, even if they do not generate a self-reinforcing cycle of participation. By shifting attention from electoral outcomes to electoral occurrence, this study advances understanding of how elections shape political attitudes and engages with debates on second-order elections that emphasize variation in the salience of contests. The results underscore the symbolic and substantive roles of elections in sustaining democratic legitimacy and highlight how the visibility of elections can reinforce political trust.