An Uncertainty Partition Approach for Inferring Interactive Hydrologic Risks

Abstract

Extensive uncertainties exist in hydrologic risk analysis. Particularly for interdependent hydrometeorological extremes, the random features in individual variables and their dependence structures may lead to bias and uncertainty in future risk inferences. In this study, a full-subsampling factorial copula (FSFC) approach is proposed to quantify parameter uncertainties and further reveal their contributions to predictive uncertainties in risk inferences. Specifically, a full-subsampling factorial analysis (FSFA) approach is developed to diminish the effect of the sample size and provide reliable characterization for parameters’ contributions to the resulting risk inferences. The proposed approach is applied to multivariate flood risk inference for Wei River basin to demonstrate the applicability of FSFC for tracking the major contributors to resulting uncertainty in a multivariate risk analysis framework. In detail, the multivariate risk model associated with flood peak and volume will be established and further introduced into the proposed full-subsampling factorial analysis framework to reveal the individual and interactive effects of parameter uncertainties on the predictive uncertainties in the resulting risk inferences. The results suggest that uncertainties in risk inferences would mainly be attributed to some parameters of the marginal distributions while the parameter of dependence structure (i.e. copula function) would not produce noticeable effects. Moreover, compared with traditional factorial analysis (FA), the proposed FSFA approach would produce more reliable visualization for parameters' impacts on risk inferences, while the traditional FA would remarkable overestimate contribution of parameters' interaction to the failure probability in AND, and at the same time, underestimate the contribution of parameters' interaction to the failure probabilities in OR and Kendall.