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http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28141| Title: | Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels |
| Authors: | Cui, T Li, Y Yang, L Nan, Y Li, K Tudaji, M Hu, H Long, D Shahid, M Mubeen, A He, Z Yong, B Lu, H Li, C Ni, G Hu, C Tian, F |
| Issue Date: | 1-Mar-2023 |
| Publisher: | Nature Research |
| Citation: | Cui, T., Li, Y., Yang, L. et al. (2023). 'Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels' in Nature Communications. Vol. 14 (1)., pp.1 - 9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36804-6. |
| Abstract: | Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes in river flows for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at the warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C based on an observation-constrained hydrological model. The annual mean streamflow for seven rivers at 1.5 °C warming level decreases by 0.1–3.2% relative to the present-day climate condition, and increases by 1.5–12% at 3.0 °C warming level. The shifting river flows for the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, and Ganges are mostly influenced by projected increases in rainfall, but those for the Mekong, Salween, and Indus are dictated by the relative changes in rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt. Reduced river flows in a moderately warmed climate threaten water security in riparian countries, while elevated flood risks are expected with further temperature increases over the Tibetan Plateau. |
| Description: | Data Availability Statement - The MERIT DEM is available at http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~yamadai/MERIT_DEM/. The NDVI is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/climate-data-records/normalized-difference-vegetation-index.The LAI dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/climate-data-records/leaf-area-index-and-fapar. Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in Nepal for the Ganges is available at https://www.dhm.gov.np/request-data, and the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority for the Indus are available at http://www.wapda.gov.pk. Soil hydraulic parameters are available at http://globalchange.bnu.edu.cn/research. The Watch Forcing dataset (WFD) is obtained from https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/. The CMIP6 model outputs are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The RGI data is available at http://www.glims.org/RGI/randolph60.html.The ice thickness datasets are available at https://doi.org/10.6096/1007. The glacier mass balance data are available at https://wgms.ch/data_databaseversions and https://www.sedoo.fr/theia-publication-products/?uuid=c428c5b9-df8f-4f86-9b75-e04c778e29b9. H08 data is available at https://www.isimip.org/. The World Gridded Population is available at https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v4. The results of this study are available as a supplement to this manuscript (Supplementary Dataset 1). |
| URI: | http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28141 |
| DOI: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36804-6 |
| Other Identifiers: | Article No.: 1176 ORCiD ID: Muhammad Shahid https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0771-4498 ORCiD ID: Fuqiang Tian https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9414-7019 |
| Appears in Collections: | Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research Papers |
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