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http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28431| Title: | Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels |
| Authors: | Chen, K de Schrijver, E Sivaraj, S Sera, F Scovronick, N Jiang, L Roye, D Lavigne, E Kyselý, J Urban, A Schneider, A Huber, V Madureira, J Mistry, MN Cvijanovic, I Armstrong, B Schneider, R Tobias, A Astrom, C Guo, Y Honda, Y Abrutzky, R Tong, S de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M Saldiva, PHN Correa, PM Ortega, NV Kan, H Osorio, S Orru, H Indermitte, E Jaakkola, JJK Ryti, N Pascal, M Katsouyanni, K Analitis, A Mayvaneh, F Entezari, A Goodman, P Zeka, A Michelozzi, P de’Donato, F Hashizume, M Alahmad, B Diaz, MH De la Cruz Valencia, C Overcenco, A Houthuijs, D Ameling, C Rao, S Carrasco-Escobar, G Seposo, X da Silva, SP Holobaca, IH Acquaotta, F Kim, H Lee, W Íñiguez, C Forsberg, B Ragettli, MS Guo, Y-LL Pan, S-C Li, S Colistro, V Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J Dang, TN Van Dung, D Carlsen, HK Cauchi, JP Achilleos, S Raz, R Gasparrini, A Vicedo-Cabrera, AM |
| Issue Date: | 27-Feb-2024 |
| Publisher: | Springer Nature |
| Citation: | Chen, K., et al., and the MCC Collaborative Research Network (2024) 'Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels', Nature Communications, 15 (1), 1796, pp. 1 - 13. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z. |
| Abstract: | Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population. |
| Description: | Data availability:
All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Data were collected within the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available. Code availability: A sample of the analysis code is available from https://github.com/CHENlab-Yale/MCC_ProjAging_Temp . Supplementary information is available online at: https://link-springer-com.ezproxytest.brunel.ac.uk/article/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z#Sec15 . |
| URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28431 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z |
| Other Identifiers: | ORCiD: Kai Chen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0164-1112 ORCiD: Evan de Schrijver https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2679-0464 ORCiD: Francesco Sera https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8890-6848 ORCiD: Noah Scovronick https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1410-3337 ORCiD: Dominic Roye https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5516-6396 ORCiD: Alexandra Schneider https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1084-2442 ORCiD: Veronika Huber https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9633-2752 ORCiD: Malcolm N. Mistry https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3345-6197 ORCiD: Ivana Cvijanovic https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7745 ORCiD: Ariana Zeka https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9570-8831 ORCiD: Antonio Gasparrini https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2271-3568 ORCiD: Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6982-8867 1796 |
| Appears in Collections: | Institute for the Environment |
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