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http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28936
Title: | Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study |
Authors: | Wen, B Wu, Y Guo, Y Gasparrini, A Tong, S Overcenco, A Urban, A Schneider, A Entezari, A Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, A Zanobetti, A Analitis, A Zeka, A Tobias, A Nunes, B Alahmad, B Armstrong, B Forsberg, B Pan, S-C Íñiguez, C Ameling, C De la Cruz Valencia, C Åström, C Houthuijs, D Van Dung, D Royé, D Indermitte, E Lavigne, E Mayvaneh, F Acquaotta, F de’Donato, F Rao, S Sera, F Carrasco-Escobar, G Kan, H Orru, H Kim, H Holobaca, I-H Kyselý, J Madureira, J Schwartz, J Jaakkola, JJK Katsouyanni, K Hurtado Diaz, M Ragettli, MS Hashizume, M Pascal, M de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, M Valdés Ortega, N Ryti, N Scovronick, N Michelozzi, P Matus Correa, P Goodman, P Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, P Raz, R Abrutzky, R Osorio, S Ngoc Dang, T Colistro, V Huber, V Lee, W Seposo, X Honda, Y Kim, Y Leon Guo, Y Bell, ML Li, S |
Keywords: | temperature variability;mortality;inter-dayI;intra-day |
Issue Date: | 3-May-2024 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Citation: | Wen, B. et al. (2024) 'Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study', Environment International, 187, 108712, pp. 1 - 13. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712. |
Abstract: | Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has a higher effect. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health. |
Description: | Data availability:
The authors do not have permission to share data. Supplementary data are available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024002988?via%3Dihub#s0095 . |
URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28936 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712 |
ISSN: | 0160-4120 |
Other Identifiers: | ORCiD: Yao Wu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8105-0522 ORCiD: Antonio Gasparrini https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2271-3568 ORCiD: Ala Overcenco https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6970-9216 ORCiD: Alexandra Schneider https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1084-2442 ORCiD: Ariana Zeka https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9570-8831 ORCiD: Aurelio Tobias https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6428-6755 ORCiD: Shih-Chun Pan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2362-3940 ORCiD: Carmen Íñiguez https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3471-4928 ORCiD: Francesca de’Donato https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2225-9457 ORCiD: Francesco Sera https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8890-6848 ORCiD: Haidong Kan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1871-8999 ORCiD: Iulian-Horia Holobaca https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6170-1287 ORCiD: Joana Madureira https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5279-877X ORCiD: Martina S. Ragettli https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7417-3287 ORCiD: Raanan Raz https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7869-3909 ORCiD: Yasushi Honda https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2248-1629 ORCiD: Yoonhee Kim https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2517-1087 ORCiD: Michelle L. Bell https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3965-1359 108712 |
Appears in Collections: | Institute for the Environment |
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