Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/29333
Full metadata record
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Selva, J | - |
dc.contributor.author | Argyroudis, S | - |
dc.contributor.author | Cotton, F | - |
dc.contributor.author | Esposito, S | - |
dc.contributor.author | Iqbal, SM | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lorito, S | - |
dc.contributor.author | Stojadinovic, B | - |
dc.contributor.author | Basili, R | - |
dc.contributor.author | Hoechner, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Mignan, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Pitilakis, K | - |
dc.contributor.author | Thio, HK | - |
dc.contributor.author | Giardini, D | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-07-11T13:13:43Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2024-07-11T13:13:43Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2024-06-26 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Jacopo Selva https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6263-6934 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Sotirios Argyroudis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8131-3038 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Fabrice Cotton https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9242-3996 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Stefano Lorito https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1458-2131 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Božidar Stojadinović https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1713-1977 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Roberto Basili https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5140-0694 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Andreas Hoechner https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3494-5200 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Arnaud Mignan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2167-7534 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Kyriazis Pitilakis https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2265-0314 | - |
dc.identifier | ORCiD: Hong Kie Thio https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9051-9601 | - |
dc.identifier | 104641 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Selva, J. et al. (2024) ‘A novel multiple-expert protocol to manage uncertainty and subjective choices in probabilistic single and multi-hazard risk analyses’, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 110, 104641, pp. 1 - 21. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104641. | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/29333 | - |
dc.description | Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article. | - |
dc.description.abstract | Integrating diverse expert opinions in hazard and risk projects is essential to managing subjective decisions and quantifying uncertainty to produce stable and trustworthy results. A structured procedure is necessary to organize the gathering of experts' opinions while ensuring transparency, accountability, and independence in judgements. We propose a novel Multiple-Expert management Protocol (MEP) to address this challenge, providing procedural guidelines for conducting single to multi-hazard risk analyses. MEP establishes a workflow to manage subjectivity rooted in (i) moderated and staged group interactions, (ii) trackable blind advice through written elicitations with mathematical aggregation, (iii) participatory independent review, (iv) close cooperation between scientific and managerial coordination, and (v) proper and comprehensive documentation. Originally developed for stress testing critical infrastructure, MEP is designed as a single, flexible, technology-neutral procedural workflow applicable to various sectors. Moreover, its scalability allows it to adapt from high to low-budget projects and from complex probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessments to standard single-hazard analyses, with different experts' degree and type of involvement depending on available funding and emerging controversies. We present two compelling case studies to showcase MEP's practical applicability: a multi-hazard risk analysis for a port infrastructure and a single-hazard regional tsunami hazard assessment. | en_US |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No. 603389 & Mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations with grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26 (https://ec.europa.eu/echo/funding-evaluations/financing-civil-protection-europe/selected-projects/probabilistic-tsunami-hazard_en). | en_US |
dc.format.extent | 1 - 21 | - |
dc.format.medium | Electronic | - |
dc.language | English | - |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
dc.rights | Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | - |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 | - |
dc.subject | Expert elicitation | en_US |
dc.subject | Epistemic uncertainty | en_US |
dc.subject | Stress test | en_US |
dc.subject | Critical infrastructure | en_US |
dc.subject | Multi-hazard risk | en_US |
dc.subject | Natural hazards | en_US |
dc.title | A novel Multiple-Expert Protocol to manage uncertainty and subjective choices in probabilistic single and multi-hazard risk analyses | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.date.dateAccepted | 2024-06-24 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104641 | - |
dc.relation.isPartOf | International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction | - |
pubs.publication-status | Published | - |
pubs.volume | 110 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2212-4209 | - |
Appears in Collections: | Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research Papers |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
FullText.pdf | Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | 5.1 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License