The political economy of group domination and pre-electoral violence

Abstract

We construct a theoretical model to study the effects of pre-electoral violence in a political economy set-up. In an environment pervaded by ethnic cleavages, we model violence in terms of a group destroying the rival group’s production potential, which impairs that group’s productivity not only in material terms but also by breaking the targeted group’s cohesion and morale through fear and intimidation. We show that the destruction perpetrated by either group is increasing in their rival’s productivity, and is decreasing in the potential uncertainty surrounding the political process, in their own group’s share of the population, and in the degree of authoritarianism of the studied society. Our case studies on Zimbabwe, Kenya, and Nigeria provide support to our theory.