Forecasting refugee return to Ukraine amid ongoing war and uncertainty

Abstract

Despite the ongoing war, the Government of Ukraine and its international partners are dedicating increasing focus on national recovery—and the policies, reforms and investments needed to rebuild. Forced displacement is massive, with nearly a quarter of the pre-war population having fled their homes, including some 5.6 million refugees and more than 3.7 million internally displaced. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the scope of return — including the socio-economic characteristics of who is likely to return, under what conditions, to which parts of the country, and the subsequent programmes, services and support required to ensure sustainability of returns — is critical to ensuring an equitable recovery that leaves no one behind. Building on successive rounds of intentions surveys undertaken among the Ukrainian refugee population in European host states, UNHCR partnered with Brunel University of London to develop an innovative agentbased modelling prototype to forecast potential returns under five different hypothetical scenarios. Guided by an informal advisory group of technical experts from international financial institutions, regional institutions and development actors, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy and the Kyiv School of Economics, the model provides key insights into a range of factors that will likely influence future return trends and subsequent recovery needs in different oblasts across Ukraine, in accordance with five plausible future scenarios. The results outlined in this brief are simulated based on a scenario of ‘fragile peace’ with concessions. The prototype can produce simulations relating to five different, defined scenarios, simulating variations in expected return trends.