Short-Term Disruptions and Recovery Patterns in Spanish Hotel Activity: Insights from Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis

Abstract

Purpose: This paper examines the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on Spanish hotel activity to establish whether it has had temporary or permanent effects. Project/methodology/approach: The analysis is based on both quantitative and qualitative approaches. For the former, data from Google Trends and the Spanish Statistical Office (INE) are collected to create a Leading Hotel Activity (LHA) index and fractional integration and cointegration methods are applied. For the latter, online interviews of a focus group in the Spanish hotel sector are conducted. The analysis also distinguishes between the five main source countries for Spain and the main five tourists regions in Spain. Findings: The results show that the impact of Covid-19 shock on Spanish hotel activity was temporary, and that it disappeared at a faster rate in the case of the Balearic Islands and of tourists from Germany. The qualitative evidence indicates a strong linkage between intentions and behaviour in the Spanish tourism sector. Practical implications: The findings indicate that the effects of Covid-19 on Spanish hotel activity were temporary. The Leading Hotel Activity (LHA) index based on Google Trends emerges as a useful tool for anticipating demand and supporting managerial and destination-level planning. Moreover, differences in recovery across regions and source markets underline the importance of targeted strategies, while the strong link between online search intentions and hotel stays highlights the role of confidence-building measures in accelerating demand recovery. Originality/value: This paper combines fractional integration methods with qualitative evidence to analyse the persistence of shocks in Spanish hotel activity. It introduces a novel Leading Hotel Activity (LHA) index based on Google Trends and provides new evidence on the link between online search intentions and hotel stays across source markets and destination regions.