The Evolution of UK-EU Relations since Brexit

Abstract

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the EU and UK covers a very broad range of areas of cooperation, from the core integration issue of trade to criminal justice, while still leaving numerous matters open for further agreement and negotiation. Since the TCA was adopted in late 2019, the major subsequent agreement has been the Windsor Framework, primarily concerned with further reconciling the exceptional situation of Northern Ireland as being in principle within both the EU and UK internal markets. Amongst the issues publicly identified as having potential for greater agreement between both sides is mutual recognition in trade in goods, a framework for which could not be agreed in the TCA. This has been amongst the most noticeable practical effects of Brexit, at least for traders if not for the general public, as it has required an extensive phased new set of trading arrangements, as well as the pragmatic negotiation of a rolling over of CE recognition. This paper evaluates the longer-term significance of the Windsor Framework as an adjustment to the TCA as well as the matters which could be considered to be obviously outstanding or with an evident potential for further negotiation and agreement in the right political circumstances, including mutual recognition. It seeks to put the development of ongoing cooperation under the TCA in the political context of the future EU-UK political relationship and whether the UK is likely to prefer either a close and cooperative alignment with the EU or a more self-assertive path of differentiation.