Techno-economic assessment of an integrated biorefinery for the production of advanced biofuels from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste

Abstract

The organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) is an abundant feedstock whose techno-economic potential remains poorly characterised: most published assessments rely on process simulation rather than operational data and omit general plant expenditures unavoidable at commercial scale. This work assesses a commercial-scale (49,500 t yr−1) integrated biorefinery co-producing lipids, advanced bioethanol, and biogas. Process performance is scaled from a demonstration plant on source-separated household food waste, and capital, process, and general plant expenditures are explicitly modelled. A 25-year discounted cash flow model is combined with break-even mapping, deterministic sensitivity on fifteen parameters, levelised cost estimation, and Monte Carlo simulation on the eight dominant parameters. Capital investment is 16.68 M€ and annual operating expenditure 4.17 M€ yr−1, with drying alone contributing 39.6% of OPEX. The project is not viable under market-only operation (NPV −15.50 M€); under a reference scenario of a 30 €/t gate fee and a 30% CAPEX subsidy it delivers a positive NPV of +8.42 M€ and an IRR of 11.74%. The levelised costs of 2.34 €/kg for lipids, 1.26 €/L for bioethanol, and 110 €/MWh for biogas-derived electricity place biogas in a competitive position, bioethanol within reach of the 2030 EU advanced-bioethanol price projection, and lipids above the used cooking oil benchmark. Thermal energy price and drying specific energy consumption emerge as the dominant drivers of project economics. Reducing the drying thermal demand, through high-efficiency dryers or industrial waste-heat symbiosis, is therefore the most impactful pathway to cleaner production for OFMSW biorefineries.