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http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/19071
Title: | Marginal role for 53 common genetic variants in cardiovascular disease prediction |
Authors: | Morris, RW Cooper, JA Shah, T Wong, A Drenos, F Engmann, J McLachlan, S Jefferis, B Dale, C Hardy, R Kuh, D Ben-Shlomo, Y Wannamethee, SG Whincup, PH Casas, JP Kivimaki, M Kumari, M Talmud, PJ Price, JF Dudbridge, F Hingorani, AD Humphries, SE |
Issue Date: | 30-Jun-2016 |
Publisher: | BMJ Publishing Group |
Citation: | Heart, 2016, 102 (20), pp. 1640 - 1647 |
Abstract: | Objective We investigated discrimination and calibration of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores when genotypic was added to phenotypic information. The potential of genetic information for those at intermediate risk by a phenotype-based risk score was assessed. Methods Data were from seven prospective studies including 11..851 individuals initially free of CVD or diabetes, with 1444 incident CVD events over 10â..years' follow-up. We calculated a score from 53 CVD-related single nucleotide polymorphisms and an established CVD risk equation QRISK-2' comprising phenotypic measures. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), detection rate for given false-positive rate (FPR) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) index were estimated for gene scores alone and in addition to the QRISK-2 CVD risk score. We also evaluated use of genetic information only for those at intermediate risk according to QRISK-2. Results The AUROC was 0.635 for QRISK-2 alone and 0.623 with addition of the gene score. The detection rate for 5% FPR improved from 11.9% to 12.0% when the gene score was added. For a 10-year CVD risk cut-off point of 10%, the NRI was 0.25% when the gene score was added to QRISK-2. Applying the genetic risk score only to those with QRISK-2 risk of 10%-<20% and prescribing statins where risk exceeded 20% suggested that genetic information could prevent one additional event for every 462 people screened. Conclusion The gene score produced minimal incremental population-wide utility over phenotypic risk prediction of CVD. Tailored prediction using genetic information for those at intermediate risk may have clinical utility. |
URI: | http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/19071 |
DOI: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309298 |
ISSN: | 1355-6037 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309298 1468-201X |
Appears in Collections: | Dept of Life Sciences Research Papers |
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