Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title: The Butterfly “Affect”: Impact of Development Practices on Cryptocurrency Prices
Authors: Bartolucci, S
Destefanis, G
Ortu, M
Uras, N
Marchesi, M
Tonelli, R
Keywords: blockchain;open source software development;data mining
Issue Date: 2020
Publisher: EDP Sciences
Citation: EPJ Data Science
Abstract: The network of developers in distributed ledgers and blockchains open source projects is essential to maintaining the platform: understanding the structure of their exchanges, analysing their activity and its quality (e.g. issues resolution times, politeness in comments) is important to determine how "healthy" and efficient a project is. The quality of a project affects the trust in the platform, and therefore the value of the digital tokens exchanged over it. In this paper, we investigate whether developers' emotions can effectively provide insights that can improve the prediction of the price of tokens. We consider developers' comments and activity for two major blockchain projects, namely Ethereum and Bitcoin, extracted from Github. We measure sentiment and emotions (joy, love, anger, etc.) of the developers' comments over time, and test the corresponding time series (i.e. the affect time series) for correlations and causality with the Bitcoin/Ethereum time series of prices. Our analysis shows the existence of a Granger-causality between the time series of developers' emotions and Bitcoin/Ethereum price. Moreover, using an artificial recurrent neural network (LSTM), we can show that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) - associated with the prediction of the prices of cryptocurrencies - significantly decreases when including the affect time series.
ISSN: 2193-1127
Appears in Collections:Dept of Computer Science Research Papers

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
FullText.pdf1.13 MBAdobe PDFView/Open

Items in BURA are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.