Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title: Delayed shock? How Brexit conditioned campaign effects in British general elections
Authors: Fisher, J
Fieldhouse, E
Cutts, D
Keywords: electoral shocks;Brexit;campaign effects;British general elections;popularity equilibrium
Issue Date: 30-May-2023
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Citation: Fisher, J., Fieldhouse, E. and Cutts, D. (2023) 'Delayed Shock? How Brexit Conditioned Campaign Effects in British General Elections', Party Politics, 0 (ahead-of-print), pp. 1 - 16. doi: 10.1177/13540688231168583.
Abstract: Copyright © The Authors 2023. The impact of campaigns on electoral performance is conditioned in part by contextual effects. The popularity equilibrium model has proven to be an important guide to how the electoral effects of local campaigns vary by a party’s existing level of popularity. Such an equilibrium can, however be disturbed by an electoral shock—a rare event which fundamentally challenges the foundations that underpin predictability in elections. This article analyses the impact of the electoral shock of the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership on campaign effects in the subsequent elections of 2017 and 2019. Using a novel theoretical and methodological approach, it shows that while there were observable effects of the Leave vote already present before the referendum, the geography of the effectiveness of Labour and Conservative local campaigns was altered after the referendum. However, it was not until the 2019 election that the shock of the 2016 Leave vote became a particularly important predictor of the electoral efficacy of both parties’ campaigns.
Description: Supplementary Material: Please find the following supplemental material visualised and available to download via Figshare in the display box below. Where there are more than one item, you can scroll through each tab to see each separate item. Please note all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is here associated with
ISSN: 1354-0688
Other Identifiers: ORCID iD: Justin Fisher; Edward Fieldhouse; David Cutts
Appears in Collections:Dept of Social and Political Sciences Research Papers

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
FullText.pdfCopyright © The Author(s) 2023. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License ( which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page ( kBAdobe PDFView/Open

This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License Creative Commons