Balancing resource relief and critical health needs through reduced-risk product transition

Abstract

This paper explores regional disparities in avoidable mortalities and hospital discharges, influenced by factors associated with high-risk behaviors such as excessive alcohol consumption, smoking, and inadequate physical activity levels. We gathered data from various official sources (ISTAT and Eurostat) and conducted a comprehensive panel data regression analysis to investigate the intricate relationships between these variables. The study found that a higher prevalence of smokers is associated with increased avoidable mortality and hospital discharges. Specifically, a 1% decrease in the percentage of smokers led to an average reduction of 12.76 hospital discharges per 10,000 inhabitants. This reduction translated to an estimated total saving of approximately 331 million Euros across all regions in 2020. Similarly, excessive wine consumption was linked to higher rates of preventable mortality and hospital discharges. A one unit drop in the number of heavy drinkers per 1,000 inhabitants would result in a saving of about 60 million Euros. Furthermore, the variable indicating the prevalence of individuals aged 3 and above who never engage in sports was positively correlated with adverse health outcomes. A 1% decrease in the number of individuals in this category would lead to a saving of approximately 223 million Euros. In parallel, we analyzed pathologies associated with smoking, which include lung cancer, respiratory ailments, and cerebrovascular diseases. Moreover, we explored the potential benefits of transitioning from high-risk to reduced-risk products, aiming at alleviating the strain on the healthcare system while reallocating resources to address critical health needs. The results suggest that if 50 percent of smokers transitioned to reduced-risk products such as e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn tobacco, the NHS could potentially save 722 million Euros in terms of smoking-related illnesses. Among the healthcare systems examined, Lombardy stands to gain the most from this transition, with an estimated annual saving of approximately 140 million Euros. The findings indicate that there is potential for further savings in the National Health Service (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale, NHS) by advocating for a reduction in high-risk behaviors.