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Title: | Severe Prenatal shocks and adolescent health: Evidence from the Dutch Hunger Winter |
Authors: | Conti, G Poupakis, S Ekamper, P Bijwaard, GE Lumey, LH |
Keywords: | health;fetal origins hypothesis;famine;prenatal exposure |
Issue Date: | 2-Mar-2024 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Citation: | Conti, G. et al. (2024) 'Severe Prenatal shocks and adolescent health: Evidence from the Dutch Hunger Winter', Economics and Human Biology, 0 (in press, pre-proof), 101372, pp. 1 - 48. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101372. |
Abstract: | This paper investigates health impacts at the end of adolescence of prenatal exposure to multiple shocks, by exploiting the unique natural experiment of the Dutch Hunger Winter. At the end of World War II, a famine occurred abruptly in the Western Netherlands (November 1944 - May 1945), pushing the previously and subsequently well-nourished Dutch population to the brink of starvation. We link high-quality military recruits data with objective health measurements for the cohorts born in the years surrounding WWII with newly digitised historical records on calories and nutrient composition of the war rations, daily temperature, and warfare deaths. Using difference-in-differences and triple differences research designs, we first show that the cohorts exposed to the Dutch Hunger Winter since early gestation have a higher Body Mass Index and an increased probability of being obese at age 18. We then find that this effect is partly moderated by warfare exposure and a reduction in energy-adjusted protein intake. Lastly, we account for selective mortality using a copula-based approach and newly-digitised data on survival rates, and find evidence of both selection and scarring effects. These results emphasise the complexity of the mechanisms at play in studying the consequences of early conditions. |
Description: | JEL classification: I10; J13. Data availability: The data that has been used is confidential. Supplementary data are available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X24000248?via%3Dihub#appSB . |
URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28535 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101372 |
ISSN: | 1570-677X |
Other Identifiers: | ORCiD: Stavros Poupakis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2688-5404 ORCiD: Peter Ekamper https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5396-5215 ORCiD: Govert E. Bijwaard https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6458-1647 101372 |
Appears in Collections: | Dept of Economics and Finance Research Papers |
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