“The future is unstable”: Exploring changing fertility intentions in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Objective: To understand whether reproductive decision-making among United Kingdom (UK) respondents had changed in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and, if so, why COVID-19 had led them to change their intentions.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey in January 2021. We asked survey participants if their fertility intentions had changed and to rate how aspects of their life had changed during COVID-19. We also included an open-ended question and asked participants to explain in their own words how COVID-19 had influenced their reproductive decision-making. We used descriptive and regression analyses to explore the quantitative data and thematically analyzed written responses.

Results: Nine percent (n = 70) of our 789 UK respondents reported a change in fertility intention after the start of the pandemic. Changes in both pro-natal and anti-natal directions made the overall change in intentions small: there was a 2% increase across the sample in not intending a child between the two time points. Only increased financial insecurity was predictive of changing intentions. Responses to the open-ended question (n = 103) listed health concerns, indirect costs of the pandemic, and changing work-life priorities as reasons for changing their intentions.

Conclusion: While studies conducted at the beginning of the pandemic found that fertility intentions became more anti-natal, we found little overall change in fertility intentions in January 2021. Our findings of small pro-natal and anti-natal changes in fertility intentions align with emerging UK birth rate data for 2021, which show minimal change in the total fertility rate in response to the pandemic.