Kabul, 2021 - The Taliban Overtakes Kabul

Abstract

The sudden collapse of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) in the face of the Taliban advance of July-August 2021, stands as a key moment of national embarrassment to the two intervening powers with the greatest exposure there: the US and the UK. Despite ample warning from multiple sources that the Taliban were making rapid advances, and that large parts of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and Police (ANP) were evaporating before the onslaught, neither the US nor the UK made adequate plans to deal with the collapse of GIRoA and the implications of that to their remaining interests in the country. Strategic intelligence analysis of the situation by US and UK analysts predicted state collapse, but generally on a longer timeline. Tactical warning was also lacking: the rapidity of the situation, and the inability of the two governments to understand and adapt to the situation, lead to chaotic evacuations of Afghanistan on terms dictated by the Taliban. The case is one of some accurate strategic warning married to tactical intelligence failure, leading to policy failure and surprise. It is both Type I and Type II failure.