Migration Predictions with a Pinch of Salt: Definitions and Reliability

Abstract

Migration prediction or forecasting is an emerging predictive IT method in migration governance. Advocates of migration prediction argue that forecasting migratory flows could enhance humanitarian preparedness and overall support the management of migration. However, while migration flow predictions could potentially be beneficial, they risk jeopardizing fundamental rights. Building on our previous work on the human rights challenges of migration prediction, this article zooms into the reliability of migration prediction. The article unearths persistent and deep-rooted muddling of legal definitions used in predictions and their inconsistent use, sometimes due to cross-disciplinary confusion and sometimes due to unresolved legal debates shaped by political undertones. It revisits terminological debates regarding the legal definition of ‘migrants’ and ‘refugees’ to argue in favour of an inclusive understanding of the term migrants as an umbrella term but is concerned that there is no coherence in the use of these terms by various stakeholders in predicting migration, including the main organisations producing datasets. The article concludes that contrary to the much-celebrated use of IT in predicting migration, the unreliability of such emerging data seriously undermines any ‘added value’ of such predictions to humanitarian preparedness and migration management.