The Path to Carbon Capture Technology Adoption—A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

A system dynamics approach is described to explore the path of Carbon Capture diffusion. The proposed model, in principle, follows the Bass diffusion of innovation theory and includes all major influencing factors. The primary contribution of this paper is the modification of Bass’s model to reflect parameters affecting the adoption of Carbon capture and storage technology. Consequently, it differs from other extensions to Bass’s model. The underpinning of this work is the system dynamics (SD) approach, which can open a pathway for further research into CCS acceptance. The proposed model’s behaviour is illustrated for various transition pathways of the technology, for different regimes. By modifying the proposed model, the paper also allows consideration of various capturing technologies on their merit. The proposed framework enables the examination of the impact of intervention policies on the adoption of CCS by individual investors. The purpose is to identify the parameters of these policies to support the under-resourced CCS technology and reduce the need for government participation. It is worth noting that the SD is primarily a descriptive method used for scenario analysis to illustrate what the future would look like.