“Estimating Software Project Effort Using Analogies”: Reflections After 28 Years

Abstract

This invited paper is the result of an invitation to write a retrospective article on a “TSE most influential paper” as part of the journal's 50th anniversary. The objective is to reflect on the progress of software engineering prediction research using the lens of a selected, highly cited research paper and 28 years of hindsight. The paper examines (i) what was achieved, (ii) what has endured and (iii) what could have been done differently with the benefit of retrospection. While many specifics of software project effort prediction have evolved, key methodological issues remain relevant. The original study emphasised empirical validation with benchmarks, out-of-sample testing and data/tool sharing. Four areas for improvement are identified: (i) stronger commitment to Open Science principles, (ii) focus on effect sizes and confidence intervals, (iii) reporting variability alongside typical results and (iv) more rigorous examination of threats to validity.