Residual Income Valuation and Stock Returns: Evidence From a Value-to-Price Investment Strategy

Abstract

This paper contributes to the accounting and asset pricing anomalies literature by investigating the performance of value-to-price (V/P) strategies, and the relationship between V/P ratio and various risk proxies. If the V/P ratio successfully predicts future returns at stock level, we hypothesize that portfolios based on the V/P ratio generate excess returns and consist of companies that are undervalued for extended periods. Both overlapping and non-overlapping returns are used to test the risk/mispricing explanation of the V/P strategy. Results for the US market show that high V/P portfolios outperform low V/P portfolios across horizons extending from 1 to 3 years. The V/P ratio is positively correlated to future stock returns after controlling for firm characteristics, which are well-known risk proxies. Findings also indicate that profitability and investment add explanatory power to the Fama–French three-factor model and for stocks with V/P ratio close to 1. However, these factors cannot explain all variation in excess returns especially for Years 2 and 3 and for stocks with high V/P ratios. Finally, portfolios with the highest V/P stocks select companies that are significantly mispriced relative to their equity (investment) and profitability growth persistence in the future.