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https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/33862| Title: | A Framework for Quantifying Diverse Multi‐Hazard Interactions to Enhance Climate Resilience |
| Authors: | Adnan, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani White, Christopher J Perugini, Eleonora Jensen, Esther Hlíðar Barnie, Talfan Castillo, Natalia Arosio, Marcello Tubaldi, Enrico Roberts, Matthew James Gaetani, Marco Cha, Younghwa Weiland, Frederiek Sperna Martinelli, Mario Douglas, John |
| Keywords: | climate change;Europe;extreme events;joint probability;multi-hazard interaction |
| Issue Date: | 5-Sep-2026 |
| Publisher: | Wiley on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society |
| Citation: | Adnan, M.S.G. et al. (2026) 'A Framework for Quantifying Diverse Multi‐Hazard Interactions to Enhance Climate Resilience', Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 5(2), e70063, pp. 1–16. doi: 10.1002/cli2.70063. |
| Abstract: | Multi‐hazard events generate impacts exceeding those of individual hazards but remain difficult to assess due to complex interactions. This study presents a generalized framework for analyzing four interaction types—multivariate, preconditioned and triggering, spatially, and temporally compounding events—across current and future climates. Combining extreme‐event detection, Bayesian copula modeling, and spatial analysis, the framework enables consistent multi‐hazard characterization beyond pairwise approaches. Applications to four European case studies reveal strong hazard dependencies and increased multi‐hazard occurrence under future climate scenarios. |
| Description: | Data Availability Statement
All data used in this analysis are from publicly available sources. The surge height and river flow data for Oslo, Norway, were obtained from the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (https://seklima.met.no/observations/). Coastal flood maps for Oslo were sourced from The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) at https://temakart.nve.no/. Riverine flood maps for Oslo were extracted from the Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps provided by the World Resources Institute https://wri-projects.s3.amazonaws.com/AqueductFloodTool/download/v2/index.html. Extreme rainfall and landslide data for Múlaþing, Iceland, were obtained from the Icelandic Meteorological Office at https://en.vedur.is/. Modeled near-surface wind speed and rainfall data for Essex, UK, were acquired from EuroCORDEX-UK: Regional Climate Projections for the UK Domain https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/b109bd69e1af425aa0f661b01c40dc51/. Additionally, modeled temperature at 2 m and rainfall data for Nice, France, were sourced from EuroCORDEX: Regional Climate Simulations, Downscaled and Bias-Corrected Database, accessible at https://www.doi.org/10.24381/cds.9eed87d5. The MATLAB (MathWorks) toolbox, detectExtremeEvents, used for identifying joint extreme events, is available at the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/sarfarazadnan/detectExtremeEvents.git. Supporting Information is available online at: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cli2.70063#support-information-section . |
| URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/33862 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70063 |
| ISSN: | 2692-4587 |
| Appears in Collections: | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research Papers |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FullText.pdf | Copyright © 2026 The Author(s). Climate Resilience and Sustainability published by Royal Meteorological Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | 3.18 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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