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Title: Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale
Authors: Tobías, A
Hashizume, M
Honda, Y
Sera, F
Kim, Y
Roye, D
Chung, Y
Dang, TN
Kim, H
Lee, W
Íñiguez, C
Vicedo-Cabrera, A
Abrutzky, R
Guo, Y
Tong, S
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M
Saldiva, PHN
Lavigne, E
Correa, PM
Ortega, NV
Kan, H
Osorio, S
Kyselý, J
Urban, A
Orru, H
Indermitte, E
Jaakkola, JJK
Ryti, NRI
Pascal, M
Huber, V
Schneider, A
Katsouyanni, K
Analitis, A
Entezari, A
Mayvaneh, F
Goodman, P
Zeka, A
Michelozzi, P
de'Donato, F
Alahmad, B
Diaz, MH
de la Cruz Valencia, C
Overcenco, A
Houthuijs, D
Ameling, C
Rao, S
Di Ruscio, F
Carrasco, G
Seposo, X
Nunes, B
Madureira, J
Holobaca, IH
Scovronick, N
Acquaotta, F
Forsberg, B
Åström, C
Ragettli, MS
Guo, YLL
Chen, BY
Li, S
Colistro, V
Zanobetti, A
Schwartz, J
van Dung, D
Armstrong, B
Gasparrini, A
Keywords: minimum mortality temperature;climate;adaptation;time-series;distributed lag nonlinear models;multi-city;multi-country
Issue Date: 1-Oct-2021
Citation: Tobías, A. et al. (2021) 'Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale', Environmental Epidemiology, 5 (5), e169, pp. 1 - 7. doi:10.1097/EE9.0000000000000169.
Abstract: Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community’s annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community’s annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
Other Identifiers: e169
Appears in Collections:Dept of Life Sciences Research Papers

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