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Title: | Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale |
Authors: | Tobías, A Hashizume, M Honda, Y Sera, F Ng, CFS Kim, Y Roye, D Chung, Y Dang, TN Kim, H Lee, W Íñiguez, C Vicedo-Cabrera, A Abrutzky, R Guo, Y Tong, S de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M Saldiva, PHN Lavigne, E Correa, PM Ortega, NV Kan, H Osorio, S Kyselý, J Urban, A Orru, H Indermitte, E Jaakkola, JJK Ryti, NRI Pascal, M Huber, V Schneider, A Katsouyanni, K Analitis, A Entezari, A Mayvaneh, F Goodman, P Zeka, A Michelozzi, P de'Donato, F Alahmad, B Diaz, MH de la Cruz Valencia, C Overcenco, A Houthuijs, D Ameling, C Rao, S Di Ruscio, F Carrasco, G Seposo, X Nunes, B Madureira, J Holobaca, IH Scovronick, N Acquaotta, F Forsberg, B Åström, C Ragettli, MS Guo, YLL Chen, BY Li, S Colistro, V Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J van Dung, D Armstrong, B Gasparrini, A |
Keywords: | minimum mortality temperature;climate;adaptation;time-series;distributed lag nonlinear models;multi-city;multi-country |
Issue Date: | 1-Oct-2021 |
Citation: | Tobías, A. et al. (2021) 'Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale', Environmental Epidemiology, 5 (5), e169, pp. 1 - 7. doi:10.1097/EE9.0000000000000169. |
Abstract: | Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community’s annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community’s annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation. |
URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/24830 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000169 |
Other Identifiers: | e169 |
Appears in Collections: | Dept of Life Sciences Research Papers |
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