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Title: Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption
Authors: Al-Eyd, A
Barrell, R
Davis, EP
Keywords: Consumption; Confidence; Causality testing
Issue Date: 2007
Publisher: Brunel University
Citation: Economics and Finance Discussion Papers, Brunel University, 07-12.
Abstract: Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, that could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.
Appears in Collections:Economics and Finance
Dept of Economics and Finance Research Papers

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