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http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/3526
Title: | Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption |
Authors: | Al-Eyd, A Barrell, R Davis, EP |
Keywords: | Consumption; Confidence; Causality testing |
Issue Date: | 2007 |
Publisher: | Brunel University |
Citation: | Economics and Finance Discussion Papers, Brunel University, 07-12. |
Abstract: | Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, that could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption. |
URI: | http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/3526 |
Appears in Collections: | Economics and Finance Dept of Economics and Finance Research Papers |
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